Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 13.721952 15.672985 17.785592 20.240942 23.013992 26.046622 29.612309
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 10.674614 13.253576 16.267594 20.041664 24.632279 30.025860 36.834252
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 8.971895 11.752897 15.165590 19.646063 25.356889 32.374692 41.633554
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 7.844188 10.773938 14.527018 19.663105 26.481964 35.193941 47.134823
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 7.098090 10.155754 14.220186 19.983602 27.905975 38.367819 53.177121
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 6.428732 9.549229 13.839813 20.124186 29.039511 41.169491 58.846388
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 5.774932 8.883265 13.293739 19.950722 29.673999 43.272087 63.624165
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 5.322200 8.455589 13.032446 20.133900 30.786965 46.063991 69.490820
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 5.052245 8.269672 13.096542 20.778255 32.586915 49.913598 77.077507
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 4.605470 7.764241 12.629861 20.569121 33.070244 51.829240 81.880922
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 4.018640 6.979384 11.662575 19.497918 32.134982 51.526797 83.266679
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 3.830745 6.829150 11.683530 19.985107 33.657238 55.049484 90.722482
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.635837 6.656571 11.664192 20.420268 35.149571 58.653012 98.589707
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.336854 6.277725 11.272065 20.204662 35.557378 60.547570 103.824086
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.040104 5.873933 10.801386 19.810850 35.622765 61.861678 108.143235
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.839157 5.625458 10.579183 19.826405 36.376830 64.341324 114.520009
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.703110 5.484943 10.535670 20.149966 37.677398 67.798254 122.721463
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.552103 5.302026 10.399487 20.291468 38.655037 70.741569 130.177365
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.371580 5.045177 10.105476 20.116705 39.041512 72.661396 135.921496
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.252195 4.899326 10.008584 20.301301 40.090993 75.795824 143.968212
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.196934 4.879185 10.151050 20.950716 42.042850 80.644449 155.345849
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 2.047106 4.649010 9.863702 20.739941 42.340781 82.480818 161.282393
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.817451 4.228613 9.164231 19.660326 40.886615 80.983452 160.923940